Through our study of the industry over the course of the semester we have selected to main areas to invest in: 4g technologies, and Internet TV. These two trends seem to hold the key to the future for the industry and we feel they would be the wisest areas to look to invest. In an industry troubled by new technology becoming quickly outdated, we looked to something that may become popular down the road rather than something that is a huge current profit generator. Although recommending any investment in this industry seems difficult, we are confident these are two segments that will prosper in the future.
First, many people recognize that 4g may be the future as far as the wireless segment goes, yet there seems to be one glaring problem, money. The rollout of 4g by major service providers will be extremely costly when they chose to expand. Announced last year, Sprint, who holds the claim for the nation’s first 4g network, spend 1.2 billion dollars to expand 4g operations(Seeking Alpha, 2009). The costliness for the major providers may pay off much further down the road, but we caution that that payoff may become threatened with the introduction of newer, more advanced technology. Thus, we recommend investing in Clearwire, a company that is used by Sprint to provide 4g to its customers. Both Sprint and Clearwire have faced a number of issues in the past, including mounting debt concerns. With this said, if Sprint wishes to expand services, they must go through Clearwire to do so. The decision, at least up front, would not depend on the success of Sprint or what they are doing to retain customers but simply the fact that they want to expand.
If we step back and look at Clearwire from a shareholder perspective, it is interesting to see who owns stake in the company. As of last year Sprint represented about 51% of its shareholders (Barrons, 2010). Other notable companies included Comcast, Google, and Time Warner (Barrons, 2010). In addition to our observation of the potential profitability to increase, we have several indications that lead us to believe this may be the case. In the third quarter of this year for example we saw a 402% increase from last year in terms of subscribers (Barrons, 2010). The report also goes on to say that they expect four million subscribers by years end, which was double their initial estimate. Other indications include the fact that their revenue is up 114% from last year in addition to their growth in customers. Their network is now available to 100 million people domestically (Barrons, 2010). With all of these figures available, it seems likely that Clearwire will improve vastly from its meager potential in the past and we are already beginning to see signs of it doing so.
Another secondary place in the market where we believe there is growth potential is in the Internet TV segment. The traditional method of watching television programming normally came from your local provider. This age old practice has the potential to become threatened. While we aren’t advocating that there will be no need for traditional providers, we see great opportunity for those involved in the Internet TV business to thrive. In recommending this segment we have broken it down into two main areas that we see potential in. One: the offering of shows online that would be available to anyone at any time. Secondly, we see the companies investing in televisions that contain Internet connectivity becoming increasingly popular. Google TV for example allows users to search content, set homepages, and stream media all to your television set since it is connected via the Internet.
In conclusion, the uncertainty of who will pull ahead in this area of the market is not clear. Google is competing with several manufacturers who have their own software that provide different services. While we don’t have a specific company recommendation, we feel the area contains a huge opportunity for growth. The ease of use and convenience should propel this segment into something we may take for granted as standard.
Sources:
"Clearwire Reports Record Subscriber and Revenue Growth in Third Quarter 2010." Barrons. N.p., 04 011 2010. Web. 21 Nov 2010.
"Sprint Expands 4G Network, Reduces Deb." Seeking Alpha. N.p., 18 011 2009. Web. 21 Nov 2010.